Under The Angsana Tree: Brexit: What Next for the EU?

Brexit Britain

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EU faces Brexit 'contagion' as populist parties across Europe call for referendums

European leaders are trying to stamp down talk of referendums CREDIT: REUTERS

Populist and Eurosceptic parties across Europe moved to capitalise on the UK’s decision to vote for Brexit by congratulating Britain on its vote for “freedom” and calling for referendums on EU membership to be held in their own countries.

“Victoire de la liberte!” – “Victory for Liberty!” declared Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right National Front party as she welcomed the news from across the Channel, putting a Union flag on her Twitter account in a statement of French fraternity for English euroscepticism.

Ms Le Pen, who is expected to reach at least the second round run-off for France’s presidential election next year, then called for “the same referendum in France and other EU countries" in a rallying cry to her own nationalist political base.

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After Brexit—-There’s Grexit, Spexit, Uscitaly and Portugal, Too

If there was any doubt that Brexit was “relevant” then the surges in European peripheral bond risk,despite massive bond-buying by The ECB, should send shivers up and down the status quo huggers that are shrugging the referendum decision off because “central banks will provide liquidity.” However, it’s not just The UK that EU officials need to worry about, as The Globalist notes, Germany will have to change its policies if it wants to avoid exit of other countries from the eurozone.

Portugal, Italy, and Spain are all seeing bond risk explode in recent weeks. Astonishingly, the major economic problems of Europe and the eurozone are left unaddressed. Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, can even claim in an interview that Spain, Portugal and Ireland “have overcome the crisis” and that “much also has happened in Greece.” Well, as we all know:

Greece is bankrupt, even as eurozone politicians continue their game of “pretend and postpone” when it comes to managing Greece’s debt mountain.
Spain is unable to stabilize its debt-to-GDP ratio even in the most optimistic scenarios and under the stewardship (until now) of the conservative party.
Portugal has a total debt load above the level of Japan (about 400% of GDP), paired with a shrinking population, lack of education and innovation and clearly bankrupt.
Ireland was and is competitive, but will never be in a position to pay off its huge private and public debt burden in an orderly way.

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After Brexit, Would It Be Swexit And Grexit?

Is Europe a row of dominoes waiting for a push from Britain in tomorrow's vote?

The contagion theory may have been a little over-egged, but there are reasons to think that if Britain leaves, others could follow.

Take Sweden, for instance. On the face of it a thoroughly EU-loving country. Polls show a big majority of Swedes wanting to stay in the union. A union that includes Britain, that is.

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For ‘Brexit,’ Like ‘Grexit,’ It’s Not About Economics

Britain’s flirtation with leaving the European Union is as puzzling as Greece’s stubborn desire to stay. After all, Britain’s economy has done quite well inside the bloc while Greece’s has been decimated.

What explains both sentiments is that the European project has always been about more than economics. It also seeks “an ever closer union among the peoples of Europe,” as the Treaty of Rome, its founding charter, declared in 1957.

“Closer union” with Europe deeply appeals to Greeks, whose own state has failed them so badly. But it repels many Britons, whose state works just fine and who want no part of a European political union. For them, the quagmire of the euro, which Britain hasn’t adopted, is a cautionary tale of what such a union could bring. How they decide between the economic benefits and political risks of staying could determine whether Britain votes to leave the EU in a June 23 referendum.

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Is Grexit Next After Brexit? Greek Stock Market Leads Europe In Losses After British Referendum

Markets around the world convulsed Friday after citizens in the U.K. voted to reject their membership in the European Union. But no major European market suffered so much as Greece’s, suggesting investors are worried Greece might follow Britain’s lead.

The Athens Stock Exchange fell 13.7 percent by 8:30 a.m. EDT, the steepest decline of any market on the continent. Greece was followed by markets in Spain and Italy, both down double-digit percentages as well following the British exit, or Brexit, from the EU.

Fears of a “Grexit” from the EU mounted during the European sovereign debt crisis after 2009 and resurged last year as Greece attempted to renegotiate its liabilities with European creditors. The latter fight led to a national referendum held by the Greece’s left-wing leadership, Syriza, over whether to accept the terms of a bailout agreement that entailed sharp spending cuts and further austerity measures. Seen as a potential indication of willingness to leave the eurozone, Greeks rejected the bailout measures by a wide margin.

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Will There Be Another Brexit Vote? Many In The UK Are Itching For One

The question on everyone’s lips Friday morning as it became clear that voters in the United Kingdom had narrowly decided to leave the European Union was, "What now?" Even though U.K. Independence Party leader Nigel Farage has declared June 24 “Independence Day,” it’s unclear exactly what is going to happen between now and when the United Kingdom formally decouples from the EU. One question on people’s minds: Will there be a second Brexit referendum?

The answer is a tricky one. In the days and weeks leading up to the June 23 vote, many people on the Leave side — those who were campaigning to leave the EU — were saying that even if they were defeated in the referendum, they could keep campaigning afterwards. They ended up winning, but they’ve opened the door for defeated Remainers (those who wanted to stay in the EU) to clamor for their own second vote.

In the wake of Thursday’s vote, Remain supporters crashed the U.K. government’s petitions website, where petitions that get 100,000 signatures automatically get considered for debate in parliament. One petition calls for the government to stipulate a rule that “if the remain or leave vote is less than 60 percent based a turnout less than 75 percent” that the government must hold another referendum, arguing that the question is too important to be decided by such a slim margin. At the time of writing, more than 155,000 signatures had been gathered.

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Brexit Vote Could Unravel Not Just the European Union, but the United Kingdom Too

AS IT BECAME CLEAR, early Friday morning, that Britons had voted to leave the European Union, a far-right nationalist politician, Nigel Farage, told cheering supporters that the goal of his once-fringe United Kingdom Independence Party had finally been met.

“Dare to dream that the dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom,” Farage declared. The victory, he added, was one for “honesty, decency and belief in nation,” achieved “without a single bullet being fired.”

That last claim struck a nerve with those for whom the defining event of the referendum campaign was the horrifying assassination, with three bullets, of Jo Cox, an internationalist, pro-European legislator whose killer shouted “Britain first” and “Keep Britain independent” as he shot and stabbed her to death

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What the Brexit vote means for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

Scotland unanimously voted to Remain, Northern Ireland were largely Remain, but Wales were almost entirely Leave. Three experts from each region have their say "What have they done?"

That was the overwhelming feeling on Friday as a shocked Scotland woke up to the news voters in England are to wrench them out of the European Union. When Scots can’t even be bothered celebrating David Cameron resigning, you know something has gone terribly wrong.

And it wasn’t just the stock market crash, the run on the pound and the months and years of political chaos stretching out ahead that was causing dismay.

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Brexit won’t shield Britain from the horror of a disintegrating EU

London’s Evening Standard. ‘The markets will soon settle down, and negotiations will probably lead to something like a Norwegian solution that allows the next British parliament to carve out a path toward some mutually agreed arrangement.’ Photograph: Leon Neal/AFP/Getty Images

Leave won because too many British voters identified the EU with authoritarianism, irrationality and contempt for parliamentary democracy while too few believed those of us who claimed that another EU was possible.

The repercussions of the vote will be dire, albeit not the ones Cameron and Brussels had warned of. The markets will soon settle down, and negotiations will probably lead to something like a Norwegian solution that allows the next British parliament to carve out a path toward some mutually agreed arrangement. Schäuble and Brussels will huff and puff but they will, inevitably, seek such a settlement with London. The Tories will hang together, as they always do, guided by their powerful instinct of class interest. However, despite the relative tranquillity that will follow on from the current shock, insidious forces will be activated under the surface with a terrible capacity for inflicting damage on Europe and on Britain.

Italy, Finland, Spain, France, and certainly Greece, are unsustainable under the present arrangements. The architecture of the euro is a guarantee of stagnation and is deepening the debt-deflationary spiral that strengthens the xenophobic right. Populists in Italy and Finland, possibly in France, will demand referendums or other ways to disengage.

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What next for Europe as it faces its biggest ever crisis?

As the sun rose over Brussels this morning the European Union awoke to a new dawn. In what had seemed an ominous warning, lightning strikes and torrential rain had engulfed the city throughout the night. The metaphor seemed too obvious.

In fact it proved to be brutally accurate.

The European Union has woken up to face the biggest institutional crisis since its foundation. The organisation which was formed from the ashes of World War II as a political and trade community but morphed and expanded into something much, much more, was unable to face the scrutiny of its people when it came to a referendum.

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Brexit: Reaction from around the UK

The north of England has roared back at London - this result underlines the disconnect between the capital and the outlying parts of England, writes Danny Savage.

It showed in the results - London overwhelmingly In, huge parts of the north Out. For many this wasn't just about Europe, it was about a metropolitan elite telling them what to do. And then rebelling against it.

Throughout the campaign nearly everyone I talked to across this vast area was Out. A sunny day at Cartmel races in May saw people sporting 'vote leave' badges.

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What Brexit Means for the Openness of the World Economy

The UK is, without a doubt, the United States’ single most important ally. It retains an ability to project power globally vastly in excess of its relative size. In both direct military operations and the hidden world of intelligence, the UK contributes more than its share to global peace and stability and the successful functioning of the NATO alliance. So what does Brexit mean for this important relationship.

Brexit, assuming that the Parliament does not exercise its right to overrule the voters, seems likely to be one of the most consequential events for America and the world since the end of the Cold War.

To begin with, the vote makes the dissolution of the United Kingdom much more likely. The recent Scottish referendum on independence was a near-run thing, and Scottish support for remaining in the EU is simply overwhelming. Every single one of Scotland’s 32 Council Areas backed Remain. Scottish nationalist parties are likely to move as quickly as possible to present their voters with the choice between the EU or the UK, and it seems almost certain that given those options the people of Scotland will vote to leave the UK and retain EU membership (a possibility that only gets more likely if the economic pain of leaving the EU becomes worse than we currently anticipate).

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EU Referendum Rules triggering a 2nd EU Referendum

EU referendum: petition for vote re-run approaches 3 million as David Lammy MP calls for parliament to block Brexit

We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.

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Brexit could lead to a larger crack-up of the United Kingdom

The UK’s departure from the European Union could trigger a series of unintended consequences across the UK itself, potentially setting the stage for Scotland’s secession from the country and a renewed round of clashes between nationalists and separatists in Northern Ireland.

Scotland and Northern Ireland both voted heavily to stay in the EU, a conflict that Scottish nationalists say gives them standing to withdraw from the UK and that has Irish nationalists clamoring to reopen the long-simmering debate over British rule in a northeastern corner of the island.

Scotland narrowly voted against independence from the UK back in 2014, was given big but as-yet-unfulfilled promises of greater autonomy, and voted by an overwhelming 62-38 margin to remain in the European Union.

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US lessons from Britain’s Brexit blunder

It would be hard to think of a more dystopian moment than Donald Trump crowing about Brexit in Scotland the day after the fateful UK referendum. The fact that the birthplace of Mr Trump’s mother — and host to a clutch of his golf courses — had rejected Brexit appeared to be lost on the Manhattan tycoon. The fact that he also revelled in the profitmaking opportunities presented by a nosediving sterling were also beside the point. Convention be damned. We are all background furniture in a Trumpian absurdist novel. It was Mr Trump’s moment to exploit.

In the non-fictional world, Brexit’s impact on the US will be felt at many levels. The most immediate, via turmoil in the financial markets, is the easiest to predict. In the short term it may also be the least troubling. At times of uncertainty, investors flee to safe assets and the US Treasury bond market remains their first choice. There will be no need for the US Federal Reserve to reverse its sole interest rate increase from last December. The markets have already done that. US long-bond yields will keep going down. The dollar will strengthen. But longer-term investor uncertainty will only deepen.

The damage to America’s global economic leadership will take longer to unfold. After Brexit, America’s hopes of concluding a transatlantic deal look extremely bleak. The EU has just lost its most outward-looking, pro-trade partner. Prospects for concluding the already stalled Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership thus look moribund. The knock-on effect on America’s big Pacific deal — the Transpacific Partnership, which has stalled on Capitol Hill — are harder to calculate. But they are unlikely to be good.

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Respond to Britain Leaving Europe

Yesterday, Brits voted in a once-in-a-lifetime referendum calling for Britain's exit from the European Union. Dubbed the "Brexit," the vote, once thought to be a shoo-in for EU unity supporters, resulted in a shocker: 52% of Brits voted for the country to leave the EU, compared to 48% who voted to stay. Voter turnout was over 70%, the largest in the country since 1992.

The debate over whether or not Britain belonged in the EU has been a never-ending one since the island nation joined in 1973. Supporters of British involvement in the EU say that the economic advantages far outweigh some of the more clunky bureaucratic elements of being part of a larger governing body. Opponents point to the EU as an undemocratic institution, and many of their arguments have been further strengthened by the ongoing immigration debate affecting all of Europe.

Given the huge implications of the vote, it's unsurprising that the political and economic scenes have shifted entirely overnight. Prime Minister David Cameron has already announced that he is stepping down from office, as he believes it is the "will of the British people."

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Brexit: What does it mean for you?

The results are in -- the British public has voted to leave the European Union. So what does a Brexit look like for you? It depends who you are:

The Homeowner
The International Globetrotter
The British Holidaymaker
The Investor
The Student
The Expat in Britain
The British Expat
The Scot
The Northern Irish

None of the Above? Let's say you don't have any connection to Britain at all. If you're watching the drama unfold from your couch in New York, New Delhi or Abu Dhabi, will a Brexit still affect you? A drop in UK property prices would be handy if you're looking to invest in London's real estate market from afar. If the value of the pound drops, it might make the cost of a vacation to Edinburgh lightly less eye-watering. But although a Brexit would primarily hurt the UK economy, it could also have consequences for global financial markets - meaning your stocks might take a hit. In other words: we simply don't know what the divorce would look like.

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EU referendum results live: Brexit wins as Britain votes to leave European Union

'It was all about immigration' - Ben Farmer speaks to activists in Lancaster about the key issues that swung the campaign to leave.

For the defeated Remain campaigners in Lancaster, there is no doubt about the campaign's most powerful issue.

Traditionally strong Labour working class estates strongly rejected the EU because of fears over immigration and jobs.

related:
David Cameron 'to resign' as UK shocks the world by voting for Brexit
David Cameron under pressure to resign as PM
What happens now Brexit is a reality
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'David Cameron is finished. His failure will define his place in history'

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8 questions Cameron must address when he speaks to the nation

Leave supporters cheer results at a Leave.eu party. Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

David Cameron is expected to address the nation this morning, and he may well be writing his speech now. Here are some of the questions he has to address.

What will be done to calm the markets? With the pound in freefall, will the Bank of England intervene? There has even been talk of closing the stock market to stop panic selling of share. Cameron will have to say something to steady nerves.
Will he remain as prime minister? No one expects him to leave Number 10 this morning, but does he really think he will be able to oversee the EU withdrawal process over the next few year? Perhaps he does. More likely, he will recognise that is unrealistic. In that case it is possible that he may announce his intention to stand down later this year, possibly before the Tory conference.
Will he invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty immediately? This is the process that starts the two-year countdown to Brexit. Before the referendum Cameron said he would trigger article 50 straight away, but there is no reason why he should and every reason to delay. It makes no sense to start the two-year clock running until the UK knows what it wants. He would be wise to clarify his intentions.
Will parliament be recalled? There is a strong case for saying it should sit on Saturday, to allow the government to assure MPs that it has a plan before markets open again on Monday.
Who will be in charge of the withdrawal negotiations? This begs the huge question as to what mandate will apply to those doing the negotiating. Will Cameron seek cross-party agreement? Will he take the Vote Leave programme as a manifesto he is bound to honour? For example, will the UK definitely withdraw from the single market?
Will there be an emergency budget? George Osborne said an emergency budget would be necessary this summer. Does that still apply, or will Cameron write that off as campaign scaremongering?
Will there be an election? There is a case for saying a new prime minister may need a mandate for the withdrawal negotiations - although there are probably very few people in Westminster with the appetite for another election now?
Does Cameron accept that the Scots have the right to have a second independence referendum?

related:
EU referendum results: Britain votes for Brexit – live updates
BBC says leave has won
ITV says leave have won
Leave set to win with 52%, according to latest Sky forecast

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BBC: In stunning decision, Britain votes to leave the E.U.

British voters have defied the will of their leaders, foreign allies, experts and much of the political establishment by opting to rupture this country’s primary connection to Europe in a stunning result that will radiate vast economic and political uncertainty across the globe.

The voters’ decision to jettison Britain’s membership in the European Union was expected to jolt markets worldwide on Friday and unsettle Western capitals. By the time the BBC had called the result at dawn in London Friday, the pound had already plummeted to its lowest level against the dollar in decades.

The result is perhaps the most dramatic to date in a wave of populist and nationalist uprisings occurring on both sides of the Atlantic and overturning traditional notions of what is politically possible.

related: Britain shocks the world by voting to leave the European Union

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Britain has voted to leave the EU – what happens next?

Anti-Brexit campaigners in Berlin. The long-term consequences of a leave vote will be seismic, but nothing will change immediately. Photograph: Reuters

The UK’s historic decision to end its 43-year love-hate relationship with the European Union represents a turning point in British history to rank alongside the two world wars of the 20th century.

On the assumption there is no turning back, or collective buyer’s remorse, Britain will live with the political, constitutional, diplomatic and economic consequences for a decade or more.

The pin on the atlas marking the UK’s place in the world has shifted, just as the centres of power in the UK polity. All the familiar points of authority in London society – Downing Street, big business, economic expertise, the foreign policy establishment – have been spurned by the equivalent of a popular cluster bomb.

related: 'A sad day for Europe': EU aghast as Britain votes Brexit

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Brexit: Five challenges for the UK when leaving the EU

Will the City of London remain Europe's premier financial hub?

The campaign to leave the European Union has won the referendum. It means the UK is now committed to withdrawing from the group of 28 countries, a process that has come to be known as Brexit. What does this mean for the UK and EU?

The deal that Prime Minister David Cameron negotiated with the EU in February, giving the UK a special status as an EU member, will now be scrapped. The UK won a guarantee that it would not suffer discrimination by being outside the eurozone. That was to safeguard the City of London's authority, as Europe's biggest financial centre. In return, the UK pledged not to block deeper eurozone integration.

If the UK manages to negotiate continued access to the EU single market on preferential terms the deal is unlikely to include the non-discrimination safeguards.

related:

EU deal: Did PM get what he wanted?
Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty
After the EU referendum result: What happens now?
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EU exit 'could take years to complete'
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Brexit: UK votes to leave EU in historic referendum

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Brexit: what happens when Britain leaves the EU

Voters have voted in favor of Brexit: British exit from the European Union. That means that in the coming months, British and European leaders will begin negotiating the terms of Britain's departure.

Britain's exit will affect the British economy, immigration policy, and lots more. It will take years for the full consequences to become clear. But here are some of the most important changes we can expect in the coming months.

A Brexit vote is not legally binding, and there are a few ways it could theoretically be blocked or overturned. However, as the BBC notes, "it would be seen as political suicide to go against the will of the people as expressed in a referendum."

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UK votes for Brexit in EU referendum, triggering market shockwaves

Britain has voted to leave the EU in a popular revolt that will send shockwaves across Europe, leaving David Cameron’s premiership hanging in the balance and triggering financial market turmoil across the globe.

Mr Cameron’s hopes of securing a Remain vote evaporated as working-class voters turned out in huge numbers to deliver a stunning rebuke to the establishment and the status quo.

With all the votes counted, 51.9 per cent voted to sever Britain’s 43-year membership of the EU, 48.1 per cent to stay in.

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After the vote, chaos

SO THE gambler finally lost. David Cameron has usually been lucky, winning office in 2010 at the head of a coalition and then outright in 2015. He also kept the United Kingdom together in the Scottish independence referendum in 2014. But the prime minister’s gamble of promising a referendum on Britain’s European Union membership has failed. As the counting of votes cast on June 23rd neared completion in the small hours of the following day, it seemed that almost 52% of the electorate had voted for Leave against 48% for Remain. The turnout was 72%, six points higher than the level in the May 2015 general election.

The response to the victory for Brexit was immediate. Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party (pictured), said June 23rd marked independence day for Britain. The pound slumped to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985 (see chart). Europe’s stockmarkets were poised to open lower as investors marked down the prospects for the British and global economies. Most economists agree with the Treasury that the British economy is now likely to fall into recession. George Osborne, the chancellor, had warned of an emergency budget, but that is unlikely.

That is partly because political turmoil will be prolonged. Although Mr Cameron insisted before the vote that he would stay on as prime minister no matter what the result, few believed him. He is expected to resign, triggering a Tory leadership contest that cannot realistically be completed until late September. Mr Osborne may go. After the Leave victory, the next Tory leader is likely to be a Brexiteer.

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Brexit: Global markets stunned as UK is set to leave European Union

In a dramatic turn that polls did not predict and which markets failed to price in, the United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.

With all 382 districts declared, the leave camp secured 51.9 percent of the vote with 17.4 million votes, throwing markets around the world into turmoil and prompting sterling to hit its lowest level since 1985.

Across Europe, markets opened deep into negative territory, with STOXX Europe 600 down 8 percent, the FTSE 100 opening down 7.83 percent, Germany's Dax down by 8.6 percent and the CAC 40 in France down by almost the same amount.

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How will the historic Brexit hit the EU economy?

Dawn breaks behind the Houses of Parliament and the statue of Winston Churchill in Westminster, London, Britain June 24, 2016. (photo credit:STEFAN WERMUTH/REUTERS)

The European Union's chief concerns over Britain's vote to leave the group are political but losing its second-largest economy will have a huge economic impact as well. Other members will have to fill in at least some of the shortfall from a lack of its contributions.

Britain's total contribution to the EU budget for 2016 has been set at 19.4 billion euros ($21.4 billion), including its rebate and customs duties. It receives about 7 billion euros, mainly agricultural and regional subsidies, leaving a gap to fill of just over 5 percent of the total EU budget.

Germany, the EU's largest member, would inevitably have to provide the most extra cash. Germany's Ifo institute estimates that would be 2.5 billion euros.

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Investor despair deepens as Brexit impact sinks in

How soon before Bank of England chief Mark Carney unveils a volley of interest rate cuts and starts cranking up the printing presses again?

That's the big question for investors after the UK vote in favour of leaving the European Union sent shockwaves through global financial markets, and left pundits – who largely failed to predict the outcome - red-faced.

The Bank of England issued a statement on the morning after the vote to leave. "The Bank of England is monitoring developments closely.

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Britain Votes to Leave the European Union

A referendum results party on Thursday at the Lexington pub in north London

Britain has voted to leave the European Union, a historic decision sure to reshape the nation’s place in the world, rattle the Continent and rock political establishments throughout the West.

With all but a handful of the country’s cities and towns reporting Friday morning, the Leave campaign held a 52 percent to 48 percent lead. The BBC called the race for the Leave campaign shortly before 4:45 a.m., with 13.1 million votes having been counted in favor of leaving and 12.2 million in favor of remaining.

The value of the British pound plummeted as financial markets absorbed the news.

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