Saturday, 15 June 2019

The heat is on: Coming in 2050?

Earth is getting ‘very, very close’ to crossing tipping point, scientist warns
Dr Will Steffen, emeritus professor at the Australian National University, said that a rise in temperature of just 4°C is all it takes to get from an Ice Age to a hazardous level of global warming

Just days after an Australian think tank issued a gloomy report warning that climate change will end human civilisation by 2050, another scientist has made a similarly dire forecast.

Speaking at the Ecosperity conference in Singapore on Thursday (June 6), Dr Will Steffen, emeritus professor at the Australian National University, said that Earth is “getting very, very close to crossing tipping points we won't be able to get back from”. He added: “We scientists are getting really concerned.”

Dr Steffen, who is also a senior fellow at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, noted that Earth’s average temperature has risen by a little over 1°C since 1880.

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Existential climate-related security risk: A scenario approach

Climate change intersects with pre-existing national security risks to function as a threat multiplier and accelerant to instability, contributing to escalating cycles of humanitarian and socio-political crises, conflict and forced migration.

Climate-change impacts on food and water systems, declining crop yields and rising food prices driven by drought, wildfire and harvest failures have already become catalysts for social breakdown and conflict across the Middle East, the Maghreb and the Sahel, contributing to the European migration crisis.

Understanding and foreseeing such events depends crucially on an appreciation of the real strengths and limitations of climate-science projections, and the application of risk-management frameworks which differ fundamentally from conventional practice.

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New Report Suggests ‘High Likelihood of Human Civilization Coming to an End’ in 2050

A harrowing scenario analysis of how human civilization might collapse in coming decades due to climate change has been endorsed by a former Australian defense chief and senior royal navy commander.

The analysis, published by the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration, a think-tank in Melbourne, Australia, describes climate change as “a near to mid-term existential threat to human civilization” and sets out a plausible scenario of where business-as-usual could lead over the next 30 years.

The paper argues that the potentially “extremely serious outcomes” of climate-related security threats are often far more probable than conventionally assumed, but almost impossible to quantify because they “fall outside the human experience of the last thousand years.”

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‘High likelihood of human civilisation coming to end’ by 2050, report finds
Coral reefs: Trying to combat climate change damage

Human civilisation as we know it may have already entered its last decades, a worrying new report examining the likely future of our planet’s habitability warns.

The increasingly disastrous impacts of the climate crisis, coupled with inaction to tackle it are sending our planet down a bleak path towards an increasingly chaotic world which could overwhelm societies around the globe, the report’s authors contend.

The paper, produced by the Melbourne-based think tank the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration, is presented by the former chief of the Australian Defence Forces and retired Royal Australian Navy Admiral Chris Barrie.

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Is it true climate change will cause the end of civilisation by 2050?
Flooding caused by climate change will displace people

Climate change could bring about the end of civilisation as we know it within three decades, an Australian think tank has warned. The report by Breakthrough, endorsed by a retired Australian admiral, says a war-time response is needed to avoid the doomsday scenario. “The report speaks, in our opinion, a harsh but necessary truth,” says co-author David Spratt.

What does the report say we are in for? The authors sketch a scenario where by 2050 more than half of the world’s population faces 20 days a year of lethal heat, crop yields globally drop by a fifth, the Amazon ecosystem collapses, the Arctic is ice-free in summer, and sea levels have risen by 0.5 metres (they rose by 0.19 metres over the 20th century). In the worst case, “the scale of destruction is beyond our capacity to model, with a high likelihood of human civilisation coming to an end.”

The report says more than a billion people could be displaced by climate change by 2050, is that true? The figure is a lot higher than most estimates. The World Bank says 140 million by 2050, for example. Breakthrough cites as evidence a 2018 report by a Swedish non-profit, which in turn sourced it from a 2010 report by a German non-profit. That said a billion people live in areas that could be inundated by sea level rises this century – quite different to saying there will be a billion climate migrants by 2050.

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Is human civilisation really going to end by 2050?

Everyone knows that the planet is melting and that the human race is facing a genuine threat to its existence, but it could all be curtains as early as 2050, according to a piece of research that went viral this week.

The Breakthrough National Centre For Climate Restoration, a think tank in Melbourne, Australia, released a report suggesting that there was a “high likelihood of human civilisation coming to an end” within a 30 year timeframe. This is huge if true. “Even for 2°C of warming,” the report says, “more than a billion people may need to be relocated and in high-end scenarios, the scale of destruction is beyond our capacity to model.”

The think tank adds that action “akin in scale to the World War II emergency mobilisation” is necessary to prevent this collapse. 2050 is pretty close, and frankly lads, it’s looking really, really bad for us. To see just how bad, and whether or not this extremely worrying claim holds water, Dazed spoke to Joeri Rogelj, a lecturer in climate change and the environment at the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, who counts Greta Thunberg among his Twitter followers. Basically, he’s the real deal.

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Climate change could end human civilization by 2050

A harrowing new climate change report warns we may be on the way to extinction, claiming there is a “high likelihood” human civilization will come to an end by 2050 unless action is taken on greenhouse gas emissions.

The dire paper, which predicts a biblical-like scenario of devastating floods, drought, famine and a breakdown in international order, has been endorsed by the former chief of Australia’s military.

The analysis, published May 30 by Australian think tank the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration, calls for a new approach to climate change and paints a bleak picture of the world in 30 years if nothing is done to combat greenhouse emissions.

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A distressing Australian climate change analysis has some bad news: human civilization is set out to collapse by 2050 if don’t grapple with the imminent threat of climate change.

The analysis concludes that climate change is “a current and existential national security risk” that “threatens the premature extinction of Earth-originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.”

In other words, the world is “on a path to the end of human civilisation and modern society as we have known it.”

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New Report Warns "High Likelihood Of Human Civilization Coming To An End" Within 30 Years

A new report has warned there's an existential risk to humanity from the climate crisis within the coming decades, and a "high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end" over the next three decades unless urgent action is taken.

The report, published by Australian thinktank the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration, outlines an apocalyptic scenario that could see conditions "beyond the threshold of human survivability" across much of our planet by 2050. Their analysis calculates the existential climate-related security risk to Earth through a scenario set 30 years into the future.

The report refuses to downplay its bleak assessment of what could happen, warning of "an existential risk to civilization [..] posing permanent large negative consequences to humanity that may never be undone, either annihilating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtailing its potential."

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Can we think in new ways about the existential human security risks driven by the climate crisis?

In 2017-18, the Australian Senate inquired into the implications of climate change for Australia’s national security. The Inquiry found that climate change is “a current and existential national security risk”, one that “threatens the premature extinction of Earth- originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development”.

I told the Inquiry that, after nuclear war, human- induced global warming is the greatest threat to human life on the planet. Today’s 7.5 billion human beings are already the most predatory species that ever existed, yet the global population has yet to peak and may reach 10 billion people, with dire implications absent a fundamental change in human behaviour.

This policy paper looks at the existential climate-related security risk through a scenario set thirty years into the future. David Spratt and Ian Dunlop have laid bare the unvarnished truth about the desperate situation humans, and our planet, are in, painting a disturbing picture of the real possibility that human life on earth may be on the way to extinction, in the most horrible way.

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The end of human civilisation due to climate change, warns report
A new report warns that climate change poses a near to medium term existential risk to human civilisation as we know it

A dystopian world beset by “outright chaos”, overwhelming threats to global security and political panic, could be upon mankind by 2050, a report from an Australian think-tank has warned.

Climate change, if left on its current trajectory, could by then spell the end of global civilisation as it is known, as devastating floods, lethal heat conditions “beyond the threshold of human survivability” and the collapse of ecosystems, grip the planet.

This nightmare 2050 scenario was presented in a policy paper published on May 30 by independent Australian think-tank Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration. It has also been endorsed by a former Australian defence chief.

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