Chinese leaders may have been US Vice-President Mike Pence’s main target audience this week as he issued Washington’s most blistering broadside on Beijing in recent years, but analysts say there was also a message for regional countries caught up in the proxy battle for supremacy between the two juggernauts in the disputed South China Sea: pick your side.
The address – which immediately drew fire from China for its “unwarranted accusations” – suggests that President Donald Trump’s administration is on the brink of intensifying the ongoing trade war between the countries into a more broad-based cold war-esque confrontation, they say. In such a scenario, China’s neighbours, from Vietnam to Malaysia and Singapore, may be cajoled into taking sides after years of delicately balancing their relationships with both superpowers.
Sino-US watchers say immediate pressure could come in the form of the US expecting a firmer stance from these countries against China’s disputed claims over wide swathes of the South China Sea – the way its traditional Western allies such as France, Britain and Australia have done.
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US navy plans major show of strength in South China Sea as warning to Beijing
The United States Pacific Fleet has drawn up a plan for a major show of force as a warning to China that will indicate its determination to counter Beijing’s military activity, it was reported on Thursday amid rising tension over the disputed South China Sea.
The plan would see planes and ships passing close to Chinese-claimed waters in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait in a freedom of navigation operation, CNN reported, citing several unnamed US defence officials. The proposal means US ships and aircraft will be operating close to Chinese forces and is expected to trigger a strong reaction from Beijing.
China’s defence ministry did not immediately comment on the report, but a Chinese diplomatic observer said that by expanding its operations from the South China Sea to the Taiwan Strait the US was escalating the confrontation.
related: US, Chinese warships within metres of collision in South China Sea
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US-CHINA TENSIONS: IS WAR THE ENDGAME IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA?
The latest freedom of navigation operations by the USS Decatur and its close encounter with a Chinese destroyer in the South China Sea – when the two vessels came within 41 metres of each other – have ratcheted up tensions between the United States and China.
And those tensions were already high. Recently they have included US sanctions on a People’s Liberation Army research unit for procuring Russian weapons, the announcement of a US arms deal for Taiwan, Beijing’s recall of its navy chief from the US and its denial of a US Navy port visit to Hong Kong, and the cancellation of a planned high-level security dialogue.
These developments can be seen in the broader context of an increasingly acrimonious relationship between the two powers, not least over the ongoing US-China trade row. But as far the South China Sea issues are concerned, the Sino-US divergences and political-military friction have long preceded the trade disagreements. In response to Beijing having reneged on its 2015 promise not to militarise the disputed waters, the PLA Navy was disinvited from this year’s multinational Rim of the Pacific exercise hosted in Hawaii.
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South China Sea: how well do China and the US really know each other’s intentions?
They say China may interfere with freedom of commercial navigation and essentially control all activities there, including fishing, and oil and gas exploration and development. To accomplish this, it will continue to intimidate rival claimants, coerce them via economic aid and “debt traps” and defy – and change – the existing applicable intentional rules.
Reinforcing these warnings, the US has officially declared China a “strategic competitor” and a “revisionist nation”. It has thus made clear it considers China a potential enemy, and it is presumed that “the gnomes in the basement” of the National Security Council, the Pentagon and the State Department are constructing and planning for worst-case scenarios – including war.
More specifically, the US has repeatedly criticised China’s claims, actions and policies in the South China Sea and has even publicly embarrassed it by barring it from the Rim of the Pacific naval exercises until it has “ceased all land reclamation activities in the South China Sea” and “removed all weapons from its land reclamation sites”.
related: Troubled waters ahead for code of conduct in the South China Sea
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US navy plans major show of strength in South China Sea as warning to Beijing
US, Chinese warships within metres of collision in South China Sea
The United States Pacific Fleet has drawn up a plan for a major show of force as a warning to China that will indicate its determination to counter Beijing’s military activity, it was reported on Thursday amid rising tension over the disputed South China Sea.
The plan would see planes and ships passing close to Chinese-claimed waters in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait in a freedom of navigation operation, CNN reported, citing several unnamed US defence officials. The proposal means US ships and aircraft will be operating close to Chinese forces and is expected to trigger a strong reaction from Beijing.
China’s defence ministry did not immediately comment on the report, but a Chinese diplomatic observer said that by expanding its operations from the South China Sea to the Taiwan Strait the US was escalating the confrontation.
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China is standing tall
Henry Kissinger said previously: whoever controls petroleum shall control the other countries; whoever controls food supplies shall control mankind; whoever controls the distribution of money shall rule the world. No one country can manage without petroleum, but not every country has petroleum resources.
Realizing the amazing commercial opportunity stated above, US laid down ground rules for Saudi and other major petroleum exporting countries, that all petroleum trading must be done in USD. Therefore any country who intended to import petroleum must convert their currency to USD to complete the deal. The petroleum exporting countries must receive the sale proceeds in USD, otherwise they might faced serious repercussions. All these implied that US derived certain benefits in all petroleum trading in the world then.
But what were the bases for these? The bases rest on the American fighter bombers and canons, as any rationales or justifications were within the firing range of the canons.
Under the autocratic power of US, who dared to oppose. The benefits derived from the practice of using USD was significant and all encompassing. Therefore US would pulverized any one who dared to act differently.
It could be recalled that when the defiant Saddam Hussein made known his intentions to trade petroleum based on Euro instead of USD, US Secretary of State Powell just waved a packet of washing powder at the United Nations (claiming it to be WMD), took actions to overthrow the “dictator”, and bombed Iraq to become a waste land. Saddam was hanged and the Americans just dusted their backsides to leave a “democratic” but bomb-shattered Iraq. In that bullying era, US Seventh Fleet was the justice, whoever had greater fist power became the big brother.
Aside from Iraq, even when staunch US allies ever considered of replacing USD in petroleum trading, harsh measures would rained upon them. Thus when the highly revered German Chancellor Angela Merkel just said Euro could be more appropriate for petroleum trading, the Americans immediately acted to precipitate the Greek debt crises. These causes a big mess in European Union and almost resulted in the break-up. Merkel retreated in anguish and dared not raise such issue again.
The Americans were apt to use such tactic ( the Chinese idiom equivalent of killing chicken to warn monkey) to evoke fear. Any one who disregard the “base line” would incur their wrath and punitive actions.
What none of the nation in the world would dare to offend the US, China did and succeeded. In 2014, the Russians made the first move to trade petroleum with China using Renminbi (RMB). That was astounding. Subsequently Iran and Iraq follow suit. Later Venezuela also discarded USD and traded their petroleum with China in RMB. With these major petroleum exporting nations trading in RMB, two-third of China’s import of petroleum were secured in RMB, thus US started to lose its benefits had these trading been done in USD.
In order to crack the monopoly of trading using USD, China took further actions. Any country which accepted RMB for the sale of petroleum would be permitted to swapped the RMB for gold in the Shanghai bullion market. This move enables RMB to become more internationalized. The US become more alarmed. Now that petroleum, RMB, and gold are interchangeable, it means the confidence in RMB is linked to confidence in gold. This would hasten savings in RMB in the whole world.
Upon China’s move to permit interchangeability between RMB and gold, another nation which became alerted besides US was petroleum juggernaut Saudi Arabia. As the Chinese were keen to widen the acceptability of RMB for petroleum imports, its import from Saudi had reduced considerably. As the China market was a huge one, the Saudi could not hold its patience any longer and had of late begun initiatives to cooperate closer with China.
Based on a number of signals, Saudi Arabia, close ally of US, will “bend with the wind” to accept RMB for petroleum export to China. One must note that Saudi is the “big brother” of petroleum export nations in Middle East. If Saudi were to accept RMB, more petroleum exporting nations in Middle East would join in and American dominance and use of USD would shrink in importance.
It has to be noted that, if 20 years ago, any nation was to trade in RMB, it would be suicidal as the Americans would resort to 1000 ways to mangle it. But China today differed greatly from China of the past. 20 years of bitter endurance, China has grown from strength to strength. The US today isn’t the same as US of the past. 20 years of friction and wars had left a huge deficit in its cofer, and waned off its warring spirit.
These countries which chose to use RMB to trade, be it the newly awakened Russia, US arch rivals Iran, Venezuela or the battered Iraq, were all ever ready to stand up to say no to US. Moreover what added to their resolve was that they are cooperating with China which has been well recognized as one country which could stand tall viv-a-vis the US.
On the other hand, the US had fought in many wars over the years, depleting it’s reserves and piling up astronomical national debt. In view of shortage of fund there were incidences of government shutdown. Under Trump’s administration, there were measures to down-size US global operations to avert worsening of its economic health. Now that monopoly of USD in trading has been foiled and US were well exasperated. But any show of force with China by the downcast war-monger is not the best option.
That was the reason that the US had in recent years laid shackles on China, such as threatening China in South China seas. That was one way for the US to let go its choked up air. The past dominance and overriding superiority is a thing of the past. That’s why one US analyst sighed: 20 years ago, US let China off the hook, now China has turned the table. But who would know, China’s growing power today was attained through how much of sweat, blood and tears!
In the past, US bombed the Chinese embassy (1999 Belgrade), the Chinese kept their cool.
In the past, US navy air-craft collided with Chinese fighter jet (2001, Hainan) China exercised patience.
In 1996 Taiwan Straits crisis, US shut down GPS, immobilizing two Chinese air-craft carriers in the Taiwan Straits, China still held its patience.
As of now, situations in South China Sea have become clearer. Vietnam’s claim was repulsed and the anti-Chinese ex-president in Philippines was force to resign, now awaiting trial.
The arbitrators appointed by the US to manage the South China Sea disputes were unsuccessful. The Japanese also fumbled in their claims. Now the routine patrol of Diaoyu Islands is done by the Chinese. In addition, Chinese naval frigates and jets are often seen to traverse between the Japanese islands, drawing repeated protests from the Japanese. The Chinese officials said defiantly: they will get use to the trespassing in due course!! And regarding the islet which the Indonesians had landed, the Chinese scientists announced they discovered an endangered plant in the vicinity and cordoned off an area more than 10 km radius as protected land. When the netizens read the news, they said that plant was there to uphold China’s national honour.
Now, the Chinese telescope called Tianyan is the world’s most advanced radio telescope. For mankind to hear the voices of the universe, the world got to depend upon China.
Now Huawei smartphone has begun to rise in popularity, and Samsung status has dropped and has tendency to explode. Plane passengers with certain series of Samsung smartphones were even not allowed to board. Apple 8 launch appeared to receive declining response.
Now, China has fully activated OROB (One Road One Belt), thus widened its global markets without interference by the US.
The spectacular Chang-an cargo train could haul about 200 coaches and reduced the time for cargo transport from China to Europe. Wherever it passed the crowds were greatly amazed and referred it as the Chinese great dragon.
Now online payment has become widespread so much so that roadside hawkers selling roasted potatoes could also accept online payment. Numerous westerners who lived in China felt greatly inconvenient when they returned to their home countries. They expressed that China is the cashless society and their home countries have lagged behind. Going home appears to get into another era.
Now China’s super fighter jet Chengdu J20 has been commissioned. To counter the US Stealth fighter jets, China has the Redflag series-9 Aerial Defence Missiles. Now US fighter jets would not dare to trespass China’s air space.
Now the Chinese nuclear submarines equipped with special high-tech have been fully upgraded. China’s very own aircraft carriers were successively commissioned.
Now China has also developed counter arsenals to thwart the American aircraft carriers. Those are Dongfeng 21D anti-ship ballistic missiles. These missiles could easily knock out the US aircraft carriers. When this news was announced, the US aircraft carriers line of defense retreated 400 Km.
Today, China has its own new early warning aircrafts, a new type of strategic bombers, and Xian Y-20 large transport aircrafts. Now China's military helicopters and heavy-duty helicopters are constantly being commissioned. These are Z-10, Z-19, Z-20 and others, dazzling to the sight.
This is the speed of China! This is China's national defense.
Over the last hundred years, China experienced humiliation and suffering through the Opium War, the Eight-Power Allied Forces and the Anti-Japanese War.
In the last hundred years, the Chinese took great pains and made relentless efforts to make nuclear bombs, build planes, build tanks and whatever the enemies have. China also made new gadgets that the enemies didn’t have.
Finally, China spent 60 years to catch up with what the West achieved over the past 200 years! China had used the blood, sweat and tears of numerous ancestors in exchange for today's success!
When China suddenly raised its “heavenly sword” to put a stop to US’s dollar hegemony, the United States suddenly found that the rapid rise of China is now beyond its control!, They have been unable to stop China's vigorous pace.
Now as China is marching doggedly forward despite torrents of resistance, achieving one breakthrough after another, it is hope that every Chinese will strive hard to keep the glorious flame of the Chinese race ever brighter. While it is said that China achieved miracles, one may just as well say China is a miracle.
Magnificent and Towering !!
related:
Time to pick sides in the South China Sea
The Coming War on China
China Arms Its Great Wall of Sand
South China Seas - The next world war
Code of Conduct for South China Sea
Playing the 'Trump' card against China
Recent Developments in the South China Sea
The ‘One China’ policy
The Nine-Dash Line 南海九段线
